ForecastAs for the natural world, we must try to restore wonder there too. We could start with that photograph of the earth. It may be our last chance. Even now it is being used in geography lessons, taken for granted by small children. We are the first generation to have seen it, the last generation to take it for granted. Will we remember what it meant to us ? How fine the earth looked, dangled in space ? How pretty against the endless black ? How round ? How very breakable? How small ? It is up to us to try to experience a sense of wonder about it that will save it before it is too late. If we cannot, we may do the final damage in our lifetimes. If we can, we may change the course of and consequently, the course of evolution, setting the human lineage firmly on a path toward a new evolutionary plateau. The Tangled Web: Melvin Konner, 2002: pg 436. LinksUnited States of Fury (Gore Vidal) 10 Reasons To Be Hopeful About 2009 -- and 3 Reasons To Be Terrified (1/2/2009) If you doubt any of this check out the bibliography. Yes Virginia. Our generation IS robbing yours now. Wages are falling, pensions disappearing, benefits shrinking, working hours longer, vacation time is less, the environment is deteriorating, debt is increasing personally and at all government levels, most of the growth rewarded the already wealthy, politics is degraded, the environment is collapsing, and the Constitution is at risk. See The Great Risk Shift: by Jacob Hacker. The Bush agenda was never for the people, but always for the Corporations (That, by definition, is called Fascism.) In fact: union busting, less job security, outsourcing, stronger CEOs, shady book-keeping, auditor's collusion, corruption, and crony capitalism ran rampant. Manufacturing jobs hemorrhaged to third-world sweat shops in what was called globalization. (See Naomi Klein's book "Shock Doctrine".) You will be competing for third-world wages. You will not earn more than we did. Bush's appointees to the Supreme Court have reliably continued his policy of corporate supremacy. Financial instability will be evident as the run on the dollar continues, energy prices continue to rise, trade deficits get worse, housing foreclosures impact the middle class, inflation escalates, and so does debt. The Fed is out of weapons. The stock market could fall out of bed. The market is responding to Republican deregulation. Their bank deregulation, the rollback of Glass-Steagle, was particularly unwise. New regulation could restore financial stability, but there are powerful forces in opposition. Because consolidation has produced institutions too big to fail, it could be much worse next time. The two Bush Presidential elections WERE stolen. (See Conyer's report). The Federal Elections Commission (FEC) became dysfunctional. Any candidate that would serve the people (with, for example, peace) was disqualified. Only Kucinich dared utter such thoughts but he was easily marginalized, kept off the debate stage, and ridiculed by the main stream media. Since the Supreme Court ruled that unlimited corporate money into elections, expect the end of any real democracy in the US. Media, already bad, will get worse. It is a major cause of a culture of violence and of education failure in the US. The three Republican Commissioners of the FCC decided, with strong Bush encouragement, to further consolidate ownership. (Be realistic; every country manages the news.) Last time they attempted this there was a massive public outcry, but Bush promised to veto any Congressional action if there was any attempt to roll back the new standard. Yet another perk for media moguls. Less foreign reporting, hardly any investigative reporting, new legal obstacles for reporters, more classified information, less whistleblower protection, more shock jocks, and more consolidated, down-sized media. It is evident that US media keeps people distracted, exploited, subservient, misinformed, juvenile, and ignorant. Since people don't really have information to make an informed decision, there can be no democracy. Don't trust anything you hear from US media, particularly talk radio. The issues that matter don't good press: i.e. healthcare, pensions, falling wages, union busting, outsourcing, offshoring, environmental damage, etc. What you WILL hear about is illegal immigrants, religious fervor from Republican candidates, hate speech from Republican shock jocks, If they can get you asking the wrong questions, the answers don't matter. Climate damage is settled science: and Republicans, since they care more about money than survival, are in denial. (If the arctic ice caps melt, just think... we can drill for even more oil there.) It is well established that "losses in biodiversity are occurring globally at all levels". Global warming is real and the consequences are occurring more rapidly than the climate models predict. Glaciers are melting fast and that can dry out rivers that make much of the planet arable. Expect more migration. Population pressure and lifestyle are the roots of environmental degradation. Recent collapse of the environment are plain to see in Haiti, Darfur, and others. Republicans are wrong in all of their population policies. Face it, there is no other habitable planet. Climate change will cause massive dislocations of, mainly poor, people. Republicans, always in denial, refuse to mitigate the damage. Massive immigration is inevitable. Republican hostility makes hypocrisy of their 'religion'. Expect resource wars, such as we are seeing in the middle east. The US reached peak oil in the 1970's and the world probably has reached a peak by now. What's going to happen when we run out of cheap gas to guzzle. The Republican War on Science continues to introduce religion into the classroom. Creationism will get a hearing. Ideology trumps science. That's the Republican agenda for improvement of education. Scandinavian education is well ahead of us. Federal agencies, under Bush, were populated with party hacks, and career civil servants left in disgust. Incompetence was rampant. There won't be any press for this though. Federal agencies are foxes guarding the henhouses. The US is returning to feudalism because of spectacular income inequality. It will build walled communities for the affluent, there will be walls along the borders to keep 'them' out, and there will be a steady increase in the population of detention camps. Discontent with a falling standard of living, fewer good jobs, and a shredded safety net can turn many people violent. Widespread, uncontrolled gun ownership will have its consequences. You will not be safer. The military-industrial complex is incredibly profitable, and it now rules. Massive military budgets, endless war, militarization of the country will inevitably produce a national security state. Civil liberties are collateral damage. Wiretapping, massive datamining, RFID, large scale surveillance will proliferate. You can forget about privacy. The Constitution will be all but meaningless. Corporations rule. The Presidency has continued to accumulate power at the expense of the democratically elected Congress. We appear to be headed for an imperial Presidency accompanied by an all-consuming effort to build an empire. Like every other empire in history, the outcome will be serious failure. The final stage of many empires in history results in 'strong man' head of state. The President has expanded his power so that he can now act in secret without the need to worry about the Geneva Conventions, International Law on Torture, Habeas Corpus, Posse Commitatus, and he can freely disappear or assassinate people even if they are citizens. He does not need to practice 'due process of law'. He is above the law...and the Roberts Supreme Court will likely agree. Congress will not be able to perform oversight because the 'executive branch' doesn't have to tell them anything. This means that we no longer have a Constitution. Checks and balances are history because the President has more power than the King we revolted against. See fascism. Because war is profitable expect more of it. Resource wars will become more frequent as climate change accelerates. The next war could be on our own soil and it can be more destructive than any of the past. In any event our military-Keynsian economy will self destruct. Some are predicting that Israel will bomb Iran. (For good reason, the Constitution authorized the Congress the power to declare War, but, really, what's to stop any President from doing it ?) Your generation will sacrifice for endless war for empire, but, since the US is broke, the empire will not last long. Bush created a lot of ill-will. Although this may be a bleak assessment, the tea parties, the political parties, the compromised media, the shortsighted corporations, and a dysfunctional government have not changed course enough. We have passed peak oil, and without cheap oil our food and transportation will be unsustainable. Climate change will result in food shortages. Population will need to fall to sustainable levels. This will not be an option. Collapse is likely. (See Michael Rupert's film: Collapse.)
Technology Forecast10 Future Shocks for the Next 10 Years Other ForecastsThe Great Transition: A Report From the Future Gore Vidal's views
The World Future Society produced this YouTube video of its top 10 forecasts for 2008.
BibliographyThreshold, The Crisis of Western Culture (Thom Hartmann) EndGame: Derrick Jensen Forecast: the Consequences of Climate Change...: Stephan Faris The Bubble of American Supremacy: Correcting the Misuse of American Power: George Soros. Common Wealth, Economics for a Crowded Planet: Jeffrey D. Sachs The Long Emergency: James Howard Kunstler Futurecast: Robert J. Shapiro Preparing for the Twenty-First Century: Paul Kennedy See other books. |