Outlook

arguments in defense of the centralization of power and rising authoritarianism are always different, but the results are always the same: corruption, stagnation, dictatorship, repression, violence. Gary Kasparov

Contents May Be Disturbing (01/02/2022)

In history there has always been a conflict between democracy and oligarchy, rather left and right.

Thomas Piketty took a close look at historical data, determined that wealth inequality almost inevitably accelerates and happens about everywhere. It might be slowed by good government, highly progressive taxes, active labor participation, and strong social supports, or by a major war as assets are destroyed. Political costs for extreme wealth disparities include increased poverty, social unrest, loss of democracy, and corrupt, antisocial government.

Moving the US right, the wrong direction, is the flawed Constitution, which badly needs a rewrite.

So here we are in a condition of extreme inequality. The wealthy game the system step-by-step using the authoritarian playbook. Taxes are reduced which has the effect of extracting wealth from everyone else. Corporations fund the drive toward fascism just as they did in 1933 Germany, the Weimar Republic.

As media consolidates, its message becomes more politically right. Since it is driven by advertising, it is easily corrupted. Local newspapers and radio stations mostly owned by private equity, downsize and dictate content from far away. There is no agreement on facts as media and schools indoctrinate instead of educating, libraries censored, books burned, dissent punished, conspiracy theories multiply.

People are divided into haves and have-nots, right and left. The right wing blames racism, sexism, religious differences which creates an underclass of people. Right wing rulers claim they are victims even though they are extremely wealthy. Extreme wealth inequality results in fascism, rule by the wealthy.

Courts are packed with ideologues that do not decide in favor of public opinion, but become important policy determinants, because the legislature is paralyzed. Instead they rule unwanted children or overpopulation, are no problem. They ignore climate warnings, make guns easy to get, and undermine voting law. They impair the pursuit of truth, and enable the slide into fascism.

Election law excludes left leaning, underclass of people assuring rule of the elite. If the elite lose, they change election officials, claim it was rigged, recount until the correct party wins, and threaten violence. The right despises democracy, admires and allies with dictators.

Government, gamed by the wealthy, becomes authoritarian, responds to funders, not people. (Lawrence Lessig provides some details in his book Republic Lost.) Increasingly, government does not respond to the will of the people. Democracy withers away. Armed suppression and violence keep the underclass in their place.

A demagogue demands loyalty, has a cult-like following, unchecked he overpowers democracy. He attacks or even removes political opposition, ejects people who are not loyal to him causing experts to leave service, massively funds domestic security, border walls, military and weapons of mass destruction. Human rights ideas are quaint. Torture is ok. International law dismissed.

Right wing government removes experts and replaces them with sycophants. It does not respond to science findings, either about the pandemic, devastating climate destruction, or other major risks, particularly long-term ones. The unwillingness to recognize the truth makes government dysfunctional.

The most challenging problems are trans-national, but current political institutions are incapable of addressing them. Migration will overwhelm many countries. Putin's wars in Syria and Ukraine flooded Europe with migrants driving their politics further right. Climate collapse will likely result in mass extinction. The same result could come from nuclear holocaust. It is right wing government that is addicted to war. Democracies are armed to counter them. Humanity is unable to install good government. It is crazy.

Earlier Post

Odds of humanity surviving much longer are slim.

Population has grown beyond the carrying capacity of the earth. Even the simplest of restraints mitigating population are sometimes violently opposed including abortion, birth control, gay marriage, sex education, and others.

To continue habitability of earth, there is a need to protect a balance with nature, which is threatened. Still, in spite of stern scientific warnings, there is not near enough reduction of CO2 emissions, protection of forests and wildlife, reduction of pollution, changes in lifestyle, to avoid a hostile planet. Odds of a technological fix are slim.

Global warming will melt the arctic, cause sea level rise flooding low lying areas, melting glaciers will result in severe droughts, more intense storms will regularly cause chaos, oceans acidify and currents slow, increasing areas of the planet will become uninhabitable. Mass migration is inevitable, inciting right wing government.

Humanity has never learned to govern. It takes a prosperous nation to go to war, kill enemies, and devastate large areas, and since preparations for war deprive the population of essentials there is much misery. Major nations are committed to constant war. With larger and more powerful nuclear weapons, another wide scale war will do us in. The US has the world's largest military, by far.

All of our most challenging problems are transnational.

Wealth inequality has accelerated producing an elite with an irresponsible agenda, toxic social results including a world wide right wing, anti-democratic movement.

The very wealthiest are either funding expeditions to space and other planets, building bunkers and stocking them with survival goods, or moving to remote places that may, for a while, be spared the worst of a coming collapse.

We know enough to realize there will be no second chance in space.

Superstition, distraction, propaganda, and misinformation provided by media, traditional religion, and propaganda mostly from the right, or corporate advertising, make matters much worse distorting reality and an agenda that has nothing to do with real challenges.

Republicans, the party of the wealthy, far right, acknowledge none of these problems. They are mostly concerned with the short-term, like next quarter's profit. They are passionate about keeping labor down. They have no regard for the common good. They don’t like government and they are bad at it. They are enemies of democracy, headed for dictatorship and fascism. The two parties will not work together, so US government is pretty much dysfunctional.

The outlook is grim.